While Southern states face more extreme heat, New York counties like Chenango and Delaware prepare for higher temperatures and occasional 90-degree days

New York – Over the next two decades, New York State is bracing for a notable rise in temperatures, with a USA TODAY analysis predicting an upswing in average annual temperatures across various counties. The study, which leans on climate projection data spanning from 2020 to 2040, suggests that the areas most affected will be north of the mid-Hudson Valley, including the Southern Tier.

According to the data, regions like Broome, Tioga, Chenango, and Delaware counties are set to experience significant temperature increases. Broome and Tioga counties, for instance, are both projected to warm by approximately 2.82 degrees, with an expected increase in the number of days seeing temperatures above 90 degrees — Broome could see two such days, while Tioga might see three. Similarly, Chenango County’s temperature is expected to rise by about 2.8 degrees, also with around two days above 90 degrees. Delaware County forecasts a slightly lesser increase of 2.78 degrees, with at least one day exceeding 90 degrees.

Despite these increases, New York appears somewhat shielded from the more extreme heat predicted for the Southeastern United States, where parts of Florida could endure up to 30 days a year with temperatures cresting above 90 degrees by 2040. In contrast, even the most affected New York counties are expected to see only a few such days.

This analysis by USA TODAY utilizes data from climate models operating under the “SSP2-4.5” scenario. This scenario assumes that future population growth and economic development will follow historical trends and that stringent climate policies will be implemented, leading to substantial emissions reductions by the year 2100. Scientists consider this a “middle of the road” scenario, reflecting moderate assumptions about social and economic changes and their impact on climate evolution.

The study categorizes counties nationwide into three groups based on their projected temperature increases: significant, moderate, and minimal. Approximately 1,100 counties fall into the “significant” category, anticipating an increase in average annual temperatures between 2.6 and 4.5 degrees. Over 1,600 counties are expected to see “moderate” warming, with temperature rises between 2.1 and 2.6 degrees. Meanwhile, just 517 counties might experience “minimal” warming, with increases ranging from 1.0 to 2.1 degrees.

For New Yorkers concerned about local temperature changes and potential health risks associated with increased heat, resources such as the CDC HeatRisk tracker are available. This tool provides weekly heat reports, safety tips, and information on possible health risks, helping residents prepare and adapt to the changing climate in their specific locales.