The models POLITICO examined could still change. Public health experts can’t account for how well people will follow social distancing measures, how many beds and ventilators a governor can acquire — or just plain luck.
But the states that many experts are most concerned with are the ones that have been slow to clamp down on travel and nonessential businesses.
“That’s alarming and scary because we know nobody is immune,” said Ali Mokdad, a health metrics expert at the University of Washington whose modeling has informed White House decisions and shows the peak of the pandemic in Georgia, Tennessee and Virginia, among others, is still weeks away.
With many Southern states only recently implementing stay-at-home orders, hospitals and local officials fear even sparsely populated counties could soon have more cases than their health care systems can handle. Local leaders and federal representatives are scrambling to add hospital capacity.
“The goal is to give our hospitals a fighting chance to care for people who do need beds, who need ventilators,” Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.) told the tele-town hall Wednesday night, as the 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew took effect. “That’s why we’re asking people to be diligent and disciplined in heeding these warnings.”
Dougherty County, Ga., home to Albany, has about 90,000 people and more than 500 cases and 30 deaths, according to the state health department. Lee County, just to the north, has 115 cases and eight deaths in a population of 30,000. The state, where Gov. Brian Kemp issued a stay-at-home order on Wednesday, well after many other states, isn’t expected to see a peak for another three weeks, according to the University of Washington model.
“This is our fourth week dealing with the crisis, and unfortunately it does not appear we have reached the peak in the Albany area,” said Ben Roberts, a spokesperson for Phoebe Health, the largest medical center in the area. “We’re okay now, but as demand for [personal protective equipment] and critical care equipment and staff grows around the state and the country, the crisis could get exponentially worse.”
Phoebe had 49 ICU beds before the pandemic, with 27 more expected to come online in the coming weeks. But hospital leaders are still searching for more ventilators. And there is concern about the specialized staffing needed to care for critically ill patients. It’s already a daily struggle to find enough protective equipment for the staff, Roberts said.
In New York, the medical system was quickly overrun. Samaritan’s Purse, an evangelical organization, built a 68-bed tent hospital in Central Park. Refrigerated tractor trailers are being brought in to supplement the city’s morgues.
Local officials fear a repeat in their communities. In Robertson County, Tenn, just north of Nashville, there have been 51 cases, or nearly 74 per 100,000 residents, one of the highest per capita rates in the state.