COVID reinfections are most likely to happen in the next 1-2 years
New York – According to a new model, people who have been infected with COVID-19 may see themselves re-infected in one to two years’ time.
Reinfection could happen as quickly as just a few months after the first infection, because as one study showed that immunity is short-lasting for some people.
A bioinformatician at the Yale School of Public Health, Jeffrey Townsend, created a model using antibody level data from a previous study.
Townsend charted the pattern for two years for an endemic, or as if the virus circulated like a cold.
The researchers built a viral family tree to model how traits change over time, using data from three similar Coronaviruses.
This helped to show how immunity waned over time.
Around four months after having the virus, chances of reinfection are 5%. After 17 months it’s 50%.
As long as immunity lasts for the common cold, the immunity appears to last for COVID around half.